大越期货尿素早报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the domestic supply significantly exceeds demand. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. However, due to the export policy not being more relaxed than expected, the overall domestic market remains in a situation of oversupply. It is predicted that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The recent urea futures price has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. Although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-20), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.4%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.421 million tons (+51,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The futures price of the main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR market will fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | -20 | 01 Contract | 1660 | -1 | Warehouse Receipt | 7535 | -275 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | -20 | Basis | 40 | -19 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.421 million tons | +51,000 tons | | Henan Spot | 1720 | -10 | UR01 | 1660 | -1 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 957,000 tons | +70,000 tons | | FOB China | 3201 | | UR05 | 1713 | -9 | UR Port Inventory | 464,000 tons | -19,000 tons | | | | | UR09 | 1734 | -10 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | - | - | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]