大越期货原油早报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the sentiment in the crude oil market weakened, with prices initially falling and then rebounding. The effect of increased production by Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries is gradually emerging, while weak demand affects the movement of goods. Saudi Arabia significantly reduced exports in July, while Kuwait and Iraq are continuously increasing production. The lack of stimulating geopolitical events is pressuring oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that in the short - term, prices will move in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term investors should hold their positions for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in July dropped to 599,400 barrels per day, the lowest in four months. Iraq plans to restart crude oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and Kuwait's current crude oil production capacity has reached 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest in over a decade. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [3]. - Basis: On September 22, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $68.99 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.82 per barrel, with a basis of $30 per barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12 decreased by 3.42 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels), the EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels), and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.296 million barrels. As of September 22, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bullish [3]. - Main Positions: As of September 16, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased, which is bullish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term prices will move in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term investors should hold their positions for observation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Saudi Arabia's new defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change its energy relationship with India. India will continue to buy Saudi oil, and Saudi Arabia is strengthening security through alliances without sacrificing business relationships. Saudi Arabia's daily oil sales to India in July were slightly over 600,000 barrels [5]. - Iraq plans to restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdistan region to Turkey through pipelines, subject to cabinet approval, and expects to resume exports within 48 hours [5]. - Oil prices were basically stable after a slight decline last week. Traders are weighing the impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil supplies and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. Since early August, oil prices have been fluctuating within a $5 - per - barrel range, with the market balancing between the prediction of a possible supply surplus at the end of the year and geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Likely Bullish Factors: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the China - US tariff exemption period is extended again; the Middle - East situation deteriorates [6]. - Likely Bearish Factors: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future; the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariffs has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: For Brent crude oil, the settlement price dropped from $66.04 to $65.97, a decrease of 0.11%. For WTI crude oil, it dropped from $62.40 to $62.28, a decrease of 0.19%. For SC crude oil, it dropped from 491.2 to 484.2, a decrease of 1.43%. For Oman crude oil, it dropped from $69.43 to $68.93, a decrease of 0.72% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of various types of crude oil, including UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil, all decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.04% for Dubai crude oil [9]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of September 16, the net long position increased by 16,865 to 98,709 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of September 16, the net long position increased by 22,593 to 232,171 [20].