大越期货菜粕早报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is influenced by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. Currently, the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season with low inventory, but after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season. The short - term trend will be affected by news and remain volatile [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range oscillation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the peak season with low inventory, but will enter the off - season after the National Day. The short - term trend is affected by news and remains volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is 92, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and the capital has flowed in, which is bearish [9]. 3.6 Other Related Data - Trading Volume and Price Difference: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [20]. - Import and Inventory: The import volume of rapeseed in September remains stable, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly. The oil extraction volume of rapeseed in oil mills fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - Aquatic Product Data: The price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35].