建信期货钢材日评-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, steel futures such as rebar and hot-rolled coil showed rebounds with narrowed gains. The steel spot market prices generally rose, and the futures technical indicators showed different trends. Considering policies and production - consumption situations, the steel market is expected to rebound again after consolidation from late September to early October [6][9] - The steel industry is facing challenges such as declining demand, low profitability, and strict environmental protection requirements. However, there are also opportunities in green transformation and policy support [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On September 22, the rebar futures main contract 2601 hit a new high since early September with a 0.85% increase, and the hot - rolled coil futures main contract 2601 rebounded for two consecutive days with a 0.54% increase. The stainless - steel futures main contract 2511 rose 0.31%. The trading volume and position changes varied among different contracts, and there was capital outflow in general [5] - The long - short position comparison and deviation degree of black - series futures showed different situations. For example, the long - short deviation degree of RB2601 was 1.40%, and that of HC2601 was - 1.21% [7] 3.1.2 Spot Market - On September 22, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market generally rose. Rebar prices in most markets increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices in most markets increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] 3.1.3 Technical Indicators - The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2601 contract showed a differentiated trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise. For the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract, the J - value and K - value turned up, and the D - value continued to fall. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2601 contract enlarged for four consecutive days, and the daily MACD green column of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract turned to a slight enlargement [8] 3.1.4 Outlook - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate has rebounded significantly, but the weekly output of the five major steel products has declined for three consecutive weeks. The demand has only slightly recovered recently, and the social inventory of the five major steel products has reached a new high since late April. In the raw material market, steel mills have replenished stocks, and the iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has dropped significantly [9] - Considering policies and production - consumption situations, the steel market is expected to rebound again after consolidation from late September to early October. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the willingness of steel mills and coking plants to replenish raw material inventories [9] 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China issued the 7th central bank bill in 2025 on September 22, with a issuance volume of 60 billion yuan, a term of 6 months, and a winning bid rate of 1.72% [10] - The Minister of Ecology and Environment emphasized the implementation of the autumn - winter air pollution prevention and control action and the scientific planning of air pollution prevention work in the 14th Five - Year Plan and the 15th Five - Year Plan [10] - Multiple ministries issued the "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", which aims to promote green and low - carbon transformation in the steel industry, including ultra - low emission transformation, energy - efficiency improvement, and low - carbon technology research [11] - From September 15 to 21, the transportation volume of national railways, highway trucks, ports, civil aviation, and postal express delivery all showed growth to varying degrees [11] - The preliminary construction section of the Yining - Aksu Railway started on September 20, with a total investment of about 37.7 billion yuan, aiming to shorten the railway transportation distance and time between southern and northern Xinjiang [11] - A 120MW/240MWh user - side energy storage project in the steel industry in Jiangsu was officially put into operation, which can increase green power consumption and reduce carbon dioxide emissions [12] - Ningxia issued a plan for the winter - spring air pollution prevention and control action, requiring steel and coking enterprises to complete ultra - low emission transformation tasks [12] - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese cold - rolled non - oriented electrical steel, and postponed the plan to increase the export tariff on low - grade iron ore and pellets [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, the daily average pig iron output, and the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, etc. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][24]