大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250923

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 23, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but there are also some bullish factors such as geopolitical instability and the approaching peak season for demand [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent oil price has been fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but it is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,150 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 20, with a premium ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving is stable as they gradually enter the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,800 (0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -73, with a premium ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]. Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,150 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7,130 (-39), the basis is 20 (9), and the comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,800 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,873 (-41), the basis is -73 (41), and the comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons [10].