大越期货油脂早报-20250923

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,450, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,372, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - Main Position: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short positions [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,273, with a basis of 130, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].