大越期货PVC期货早报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4907 - 4969 [6][11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply side: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production will increase slightly to 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average [7] - Demand side: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin has different changes, with some higher and some lower than the historical average [7][9] - Cost side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 30.80% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2379.25 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average [7] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The factory inventory of calcium carbide method was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The factory inventory of ethylene method was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [7] - Market situation: On September 22, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, and their changes compared with the previous period [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis trend: The report shows the basis trend of PVC futures over a long - term period, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [16] - Price and trading volume trend: It presents the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025 [20] - Spread analysis: Analyzes the spread of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects - Calcium carbide method - Related raw materials: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method for PVC production [25][28][30][32] - PVC supply trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, maintenance volume, and profit of PVC production by calcium carbide method and ethylene method [37][40] - Demand trend: Examines the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the situation of related downstream products such as paste resin and the real - estate market and some macro - economic indicators [42][46][53] - Inventory situation: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, factory inventory of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - Ethylene method - Related aspects: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads in the ethylene method for PVC production [60] - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]