《黑色》日报-20250923

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3100 - 3350 yuan, and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with light positions and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Short the January spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have varying degrees of increase or decrease. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continues to converge [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet prices increase, and the costs of different steelmaking processes change. The profits of various steel products show a downward trend [1]. - Output: The daily average pig iron output increases slightly, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, rebar output decreases significantly, and hot - rolled coil output increases slightly [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increases slightly, rebar inventory decreases seasonally, and hot - rolled coil inventory increases [1]. - Transaction and Demand: Building material trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products increase slightly, rebar apparent demand increases significantly, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreases [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a bullish bias in a range - bound manner, with the range referring to 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore when the price is low and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Prices and Spreads: The basis of different iron ore varieties' 01 contracts decreases significantly, and the spreads between different contracts change [4]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume decreases week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increases. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases slightly, the daily average port clearance volume increases, and the monthly output of pig iron and crude steel decreases [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreases slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increases, and the number of days of available inventory of 64 steel mills increases [4]. Group 3: Coal Industry (Coke and Coking Coal) Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - Coke: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke when the price is low, with the range referring to 1650 - 1800, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. - Coking Coal: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal when the price is low, with the range referring to 1150 - 1300, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - Supply: Due to previous price increases, coking profits are still available after two rounds of price cuts, and northern coke enterprises have high enthusiasm for resuming production [7]. - Demand: Steel mills continue to resume production, and iron water output continues to rise slightly, providing support for downstream demand [7]. - Inventory: Coking plants reduce inventory, while steel mills and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7]. Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal contracts decrease, and the basis changes [7]. - Supply: Main - producing area coal mines resume production, logistics recovers, and sales improve after price cuts. Imported coal prices follow futures fluctuations [7]. - Demand: Iron water output continues to rise, coking operations remain stable, and downstream replenishment demand increases [7]. - Inventory: Coal mines, ports, and steel mills reduce inventory, while coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increase inventory, and the overall inventory increases moderately [7].