《有色》日报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The Fed's "preventive" interest rate cut may lead the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and the previous loose trading of copper may end. The copper market is in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support, and the center of copper price will gradually rise. The short - term is at least in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and it is difficult to fundamentally reverse this pattern in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. The aluminum market has a certain double - festival stocking demand, but the inventory is still accumulating, and the de - stocking inflection point has not yet arrived. The short - term aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of recycled aluminum is still tight, and the cost support is significant. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking demand provides phased support for the spot price. The short - term spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference operating range is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward rush of Shanghai zinc. The upward continuous rebound requires the demand side to improve beyond expectations and the non - recession interest rate cut expectation to continue to improve. The downward breakthrough requires the TC to strengthen beyond expectations and the refined zinc to continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [6]. Tin - The supply side is relatively strong, which supports the tin price. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [8]. Nickel - The macro - atmosphere is weak, the mine - end disturbances increase but the actual impact is limited, and the cost still has support. There is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. The medium - term supply is still loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term main contract reference range is 120000 - 125000 [9]. Stainless Steel - The macro - expectation has been digested, and the trading has returned to the fundamentals. The raw material price is firm, and the cost support still exists, but the peak - season demand of the downstream has not been realized as expected. The short - term disk is mainly in shock adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 12800 - 13200 [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - sentiment has been digested, and the news is calm. The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate and sort out, and the main price center reference range is 70000 - 75000 [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80225 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the spot premium has decreased. The refined - scrap price difference has increased by 6.85% [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 2510 - 2511 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 4.59% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20750 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The alumina prices in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [3]. - Ratio and Profit/Loss: The import loss is - 1784 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.74 [3]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions have increased [4]. - Monthly Spread: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21950 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss is - 3292 yuan/ton [6]. - Monthly Spread: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [6]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price is 272000 yuan/ton, up 1.00% from the previous day. The import loss is - 12395.82 yuan/ton [8]. - Monthly Spread: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [8]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 177 dollars/ton [9]. - Cost of Electric Deposited Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP production of electric deposited nickel is 117171 yuan/ton, down 1.15% month - on - month [9]. - Monthly Spread: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - Supply and Inventory: China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 360 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Monthly Spread: The 2511 - 2512 spread is - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 171.33 tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 860 dollars/ton [15]. - Monthly Spread: The 2510 - 2511 spread is - 220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. The total inventory decreased by 3.75% month - on - month [15].