Report Information - Report Name: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025-09-23 [1] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03142112 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021738 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of polysilicon is unlikely to increase significantly due to high - level standards in new regulations, which make it difficult for new production capacity to come online. Demand is weakening as terminal demand is soft, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the market remains unchanged. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and it is under fundamental sentiment pressure. It is predicted to show a high - level oscillation trend. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or layout put options [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data (1) Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 50,260 yuan/ton, down 730 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 116,091 lots, down 7,826 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,505 yuan, up 85 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 41,335 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan [2] (2) Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 1,660 yuan/ton, up 1,710 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 36 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] (3) Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] (4) Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,620 US dollars/ton, down 250 US dollars [2] (5) Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6,985.7 million kilowatts, up 347.5 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,900 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 21,440,200 pieces, up 6,914,600 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.25 US dollars/piece, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly polysilicon price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 2. Industry News - On September 15, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission and the Northwest Regulatory Bureau of the National Energy Administration issued the Implementation Plan for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New - Energy Internet - Access Electricity Prices in the Autonomous Region, promoting new - energy Internet - access electricity to participate in market trading [2] - Multiple polysilicon - related events were held. The Silicon Industry Branch's annual conference discussed energy - consumption standards and reviewed the past polysilicon market; the Photovoltaic Industry Association's monthly regular meeting further discussed the purchase - storage policy and production and sales restrictions [2] - The National Standards Committee issued a notice soliciting opinions on three mandatory national standards, including the Energy - Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium. The first - level standards are relatively high, making it difficult for many enterprises to meet them, which will further promote the implementation of the purchase - storage policy and raise the entry threshold [2] 3. Key Points of View - Short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly, and the demand side shows weak terminal demand. The overall photovoltaic industry chain has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high transaction pressure at the terminal. The price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the demand for polysilicon will be suppressed. The supply remains flat while the demand weakens, and the polysilicon market is under fundamental sentiment pressure. It is expected to show a high - level oscillation trend. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or layout put options [2]
瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250923
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:05