瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry faces a complex situation. The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased, while the downstream start - up rate increased slightly. Social inventory continued to grow with high pressure. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased, and both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes are in a state of continuous loss. In the short - term, there are no planned new maintenance devices, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. PVC demand is expected to weaken marginally, and the terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Social inventory pressure is high and difficult to reduce. Calcium carbide prices are expected to remain stable, and the cost of the ethylene method is expected to change little. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4830 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC decreased by 47 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 848,608 hands, an increase of 23,698 hands. The open interest decreased by 2,075 hands. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,124,135 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands; the short position decreased by 950 hands; the net long position was 947,399 hands, a decrease of 102,368 hands [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China remained unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 700 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Northwest Europe remained unchanged. The basis of PVC was 710 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central region increased by 50 yuan/ton, in the northern region was 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.67 yuan/ton, and in the northwestern region increased by 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 2,603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price remained unchanged, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 37 US dollars/ton. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price remained unchanged, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 189 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%. The start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 76.96%, a decrease of 2.5%, and the start - up rate of the ethylene method decreased by 4.19%. The total social inventory of PVC was 771,200 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The total social inventory in the East China region was 3,800 tons, and in the South China region was 482,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index decreased by 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 93.05 million square meters, an increase of 4.595 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 43.7794 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 643.10894 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC remained unchanged, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.81%, a decrease of 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC both decreased by 0.1% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%. The PVC downstream start - up rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%, among which the pipe start - up rate increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the profile start - up rate increased by 0.21% to 39.43%. As of September 18th, PVC social inventory was 953,700 tons, a 2.03% increase from the previous week. From September 13th to 19th, the weekly average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5,631 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of the calcium carbide method decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of the ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3]