苹果产业日报-20250923

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market has a relatively high expectation for the opening price of late - maturing Fuji apples, providing a certain support at the bottom. It is recommended to mainly take short - long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8288 yuan/ton; the main contract holding volume is 87189 hands, a decrease of 6698 hands; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures holdings is 700 hands, an increase of 348 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bag 75 and above), Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bag 75 and above), Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bag 70 and above semi - commercial), and Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bag 80 and above first - grade secondary fruit farmers' goods) are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple annual output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0; the monthly apple export volume is 70000 tons, an increase of 20000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly export amount of apples is 6973.9 million US dollars, a decrease of 153306.5 million US dollars; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1589295.5 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.72 yuan/kg; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 20.2 vehicles; the weekly average daily early - morning arrival vehicle volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 31.8 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.24%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.21%, an increase of 0.09% [2] Industry News - The trading of early - maturing Fuji in the western region has basically ended. Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji in many places such as Yan'an and Weinan has been postponed. There are sporadic orders from merchants, and the price is not much different from that of early - maturing Fuji. The trading of Hongjiangjun in the Shandong production area is coming to an end, and the transaction price fluctuates and adjusts due to the volume of goods on the market. The transaction price range of Hongjiangjun in the new - season Shandong is large due to quality issues, and the price advantage of poor - quality goods is relatively obvious [2] Viewpoint Summary - The double - festival stocking is progressing gradually. The bag - removing of late - maturing Fuji is sporadic, and the rainfall in the western region may postpone the large - scale bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji. As of September 17, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons from last week. Affected by the trading of medium - maturing varieties, the inventory shipment speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area is 3.51%, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The de - stocking speed in the Shandong production area has slowed down. Local small merchants tend to choose Hongjiangjun with lower prices. The price of high - quality goods in the warehouse is relatively stable, while the price of fruit farmers' goods is weak [2]