Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with decreasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper ore supply remains tight with strong quotes, supporting the copper price. The supply of refined copper in China is expected to decrease due to raw - material supply tightness and reduced smelter profits. The demand has increased slightly due to the slight decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stockpiling needs, leading to a small reduction in social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly rising implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with light positions, paying attention to the trading rhythm and risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,920 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,980.50 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars. The spread between the main contracts in different months is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 173,294 hands, down 3,668 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 13,444 hands, up 3,842 hands. The LME copper inventory is 145,375 tons, down 2,275 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,875 tons, down 600 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 27,727 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,010 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,035 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 59.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 72.44 dollars/ton, down 7.54 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.5 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,520 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 71,220 yuan/metal ton, up 200 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,490 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 530 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.497 billion yuan, up 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 6,030.919 billion yuan, up 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287,100 pieces, down 438,933,600 pieces [2] 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, up 0.02%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.94%, up 0.0177. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.33, up 0.0002 [2] 7. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further cuts and expects only one cut this year; Musalem thinks the room for further cuts is limited; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2%. Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that by the end of June, the number of financing platforms decreased by over 60% and the financial debt scale decreased by over 50% compared with March 2023, and China's current monetary policy is supportive. Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with a US congressional delegation, emphasizing promoting stable and healthy development of bilateral economic and trade relations. China's 1 - year LPR in September is 3% and the over - 5 - year variety is 3.5%, both unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. Analysts expect the central bank to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in Q4 and drive down the LPR [2]
沪铜产业日报-20250923
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:10