瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250923

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For soda ash, it is expected that supply will be loose, demand will decline slightly, and prices will continue to be under pressure. However, with the hype of the "anti - involution" policy, there may be changes. The report suggests short - term long positions on the soda ash main contract when the price is low [2]. - For glass, although the current real - estate situation is not optimistic, if the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand. The market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The report suggests short - term long positions on the glass main contract when the price is low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1273 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Glass main contract closing price: 1183 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 90 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position: 1415505 lots [2]. - Glass main contract position: 1315901 lots, up 41822 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 275366 lots, up 3732 lots [2]. - Glass top 20 net position: - 194539 lots, up 21194 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2154 tons [2]. - Glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 68 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - Glass basis: - 103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - January - May glass contract spread: - 129 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - January - May soda ash contract spread: - 88 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1225 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. - Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton [2]. - Central China light soda ash: 1215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1080 yuan/ton [2]. - Central China glass sheets: 1140 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 85.53%, down 1.76 percentage points [2]. - Float glass enterprise operating rate: 76.01% [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 16.02 million tons/year [2]. - Glass in - production line number: 225 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 169.57 tons, down 5.99 tons [2]. - Glass enterprise inventory: 6090.8 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 67.5 ten - thousand weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 39801.01 ten - thousand square meters, up 4595.01 ten - thousand square meters [2]. - Cumulative real - estate completion area: 27693.54 ten - thousand square meters, up 2659.54 ten - thousand square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Sino - US bilateral economic and trade relations are expected to be promoted, and the two sides are in communication about a possible meeting at APEC [2]. - China's military and naval forces have carried out important activities, and the Fujian aircraft carrier has achieved take - off and landing training of three types of carrier - based aircraft [2]. - The CSRC and the SSE plan to promote capital market reforms and the entry of long - term funds [2]. - The central bank governor mentioned that China's monetary policy adheres to its own stance and takes into account internal and external balance [2]. 3.6 Macro - situation and Market Outlook - For soda ash, the domestic operating rate and production are decreasing in the short term, and in the long run, backward production capacity may be phased out, while natural soda ash production capacity is increasing. Glass production is at a low level, and photovoltaic glass demand may decline. Soda ash inventory is rising slightly, and prices will be under pressure [2]. - For glass, production is at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and profits are rising due to higher spot prices. Real - estate demand is currently weak, but may be supported by interest rate cuts. The market will fluctuate around demand, and the de - stocking trend remains unchanged [2].