瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250923

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, reducing supply pressure, and the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. Amid frequent trade policy news, the market is cautious, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, domestic consumption support is limited, and the supply - demand of vegetable oil is still loose. But the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. Before the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation makes substantial progress, rapeseed oil may maintain a relatively strong oscillation [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures收盘价(活跃合约) of rapeseed oil dropped by 147 yuan/ton to 9996 yuan/ton [2]. - There were changes in month - to - month spreads, open interest, net long positions, and warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes decreased. For instance, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu dropped by 160 yuan/ton to 10050 yuan/ton [2]. - The oil - meal ratio increased by 0.06 to 3.9, and there were changes in basis and spot price differences between different oils and meals [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production increased slightly, and the import volume of rapeseed increased by 7.06 tons to 24.66 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit increased by 56 yuan/ton to 987 yuan/ton [2]. - The oil mill inventory of rapeseed remained unchanged, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed increased by 0.27% to 13.06% [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, East China, and other regions also changed. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory increased by 1 ton to 14 tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed increased by 99.9 tons to 2927.2 tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil increased by 30 tons to 450.6 tons. The monthly catering revenue decreased by 8.4 billion yuan to 4495.7 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility and historical volatility of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil options changed. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal increased by 1.79% to 18.8% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined due to the weakness of CBOT soybean oil futures. The US soybean market is affected by factors such as harvest area adjustment, and Argentina's cancellation of agricultural export taxes may intensify international competition [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, as well as the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [2]