芳烃橡胶早报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, with the implementation of near - end TA maintenance, the start - up declined slightly, polyester load remained stable, inventory accumulated slightly, basis weakened, and spot processing fees repaired slightly. PX domestic start - up decreased, overseas devices ran smoothly, PXN weakened month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widened. In the future, as device restarts slow down TA de - stocking, polyester has no unexpected performance and new production is expected, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected to continue. However, the processing fees have reached a very low level and lasted for a long time, and PX supply is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced its load, coal - based start - up remained stable, overseas maintenance and restarts coexisted, arrivals remained the same while shipments were dull, and port inventory accumulated slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels increased, the basis weakened month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrank. Near - end new device feeding was earlier than expected, and the valuation was significantly compressed. In the future, with the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the expectation of high supply in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up of some devices increased, and production and sales improved month - on - month, with inventory continuing to decline. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end remained stable, raw material stocking increased, finished product inventory decreased month - on - month, and benefits were weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down due to high finished product inventory, but the start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, and inventory pressure is limited. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of some raw materials and products decreased, and the production profits and start - up rates of some products also changed to different degrees [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PTA - Device Changes: Hengli Huizhou's 5 million - ton device reduced its load, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device restarted [1]. - Market Conditions: The basis of the PTA main contract weakened, and the spot processing fee repaired slightly. PX domestic start - up decreased, and PXN weakened month - on - month [1]. - Future Outlook: Slowdown in TA de - stocking, far - month inventory accumulation expected, and attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees [1]. MEG - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - Market Conditions: Near - end domestic oil - based EG slightly reduced its load, and the basis weakened month - on - month [1]. - Future Outlook: Ports may gradually accumulate inventory, but actual inventory is not high, and attention to coal - based cost support [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Device Changes: Some devices increased their start - up, and production and sales improved [1]. - Market Conditions: Spot price was around 6390, and the market basis was around 10 + 10 [1]. - Future Outlook: The speed of increasing the load at the polyester yarn end may slow down, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. Natural Rubber - Market Conditions: National explicit inventory remained stable, and Thai cup rubber price remained stable [1]. - Strategy: Wait and see [1]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - Price Changes: The prices of some raw materials and products such as ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene decreased [1]. - Profit and Start - up Rate Changes: The production profits and start - up rates of PS, EPS, and ABS changed to different degrees [1].