永安期货有色早报-20250924

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - rating research report focusing on the non - ferrous metals industry, covering copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate, providing price data, market analysis, and investment strategies for each metal [1] Group 2: Copper - Price and Data: This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan. By September 23, the spot import profit increased by 39.13 yuan, and the three - month import profit increased by 74.49 yuan compared to September 17 [1] - Market Analysis: Before the interest rate meeting, the market's profit - taking sentiment led to a decline in copper prices. The downstream showed resilience, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper weakened. The internal and external positive spread has space, and the overseas structure may continue to tighten [1] - Investment Strategy: Consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 yuan, or selling put options below 78,000 yuan [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Price and Data: From September 17 to 23, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices all decreased by 70 yuan. The aluminum spot import profit increased by 194.50 yuan, and the three - month import profit increased by 177.16 yuan [1] - Market Analysis: Supply increased slightly, downstream start - up improved, overseas demand declined significantly, and inventory is expected to decrease in September [1][2] - Investment Strategy: Hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to the far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse spreads [2] Group 4: Zinc - Price and Data: This week, zinc prices oscillated downward. By September 23, the spot import profit increased by 280.41 yuan, and the futures import profit increased by 116.81 yuan compared to September 17. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons [4] - Market Analysis: Domestic TC decreased slightly, import TC increased significantly, and smelting output decreased slightly in September. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand was average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further differentiate [4] - Investment Strategy: Continue to hold short positions; partially take profits on internal - external positive spreads [4] Group 5: Nickel - Price and Data: From September 17 to 23, the price of Shanghai nickel spot decreased by 800 yuan. The spot import return decreased by 639.04 yuan, and LME inventory increased by 1,554 tons [5] - Market Analysis: Pure nickel production remained high, demand was weak, domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas delivery increased. The short - term fundamental situation was weak, and geopolitical risks were alleviated [5] Group 6: Stainless Steel - Price and Data: From September 17 to 23, the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 70 yuan [5] - Market Analysis: Steel mills are expected to resume production slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are relatively stable, and inventory in Xifu has decreased [5] Group 7: Lead - Price and Data: This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. By September 23, the spot import return decreased by 1.42 yuan, and LME inventory decreased by 1,700 tons compared to September 17 [7] - Market Analysis: Supply was tight, demand improved slightly, and inventory was at a high level. The market has expectations for the peak season in September, but the terminal consumption destocking and lead ingot purchasing efforts were weak [7] - Investment Strategy: It is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate significantly next week, with an expected range of 16,800 - 17,200 yuan [7] Group 8: Tin - Price and Data: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. By September 23, the spot import return decreased by 3,948.22 yuan, and the spot export return increased by 3,564.29 yuan compared to September 17 [10] - Market Analysis: The supply side is expected to gradually recover, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic short - term supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to the expected changes after October and the impact of interest rate cuts [10] - Investment Strategy: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Lightly short when the price is higher than 275,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, hold near the cost line [10] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - Price and Data: From September 17 to 23, the 421 Yunnan, Sichuan, 553 East China, and Tianjin basis all increased by 25 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 161 [13] - Market Analysis: Xinjiang's leading enterprises remained stable, and the production in Southwest China and Northwest China changed. The supply and demand in September and October are in a tight balance, and the long - term production capacity is in excess [13] - Investment Strategy: In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [13] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - Price and Data: This week, lithium carbonate prices oscillated strongly. By September 23, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 540 compared to September 17 [15] - Market Analysis: Raw material suppliers are reluctant to sell, and the procurement activity of lithium salt is affected by pre - holiday stocking. The current supply is still in an expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is in excess, but there is a trend of destocking [15] - Investment Strategy: The price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance hype, and the downward support before the disturbance is strong [15]