建信期货生猪日报-20250924

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure of slaughter is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 23rd, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed in the negative at the end of the session. The highest was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,655 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,354 lots to 249,995 lots [9]. - Spot Market: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - Supply - Side Situation: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, the slaughter pressure is large, the slaughter progress at the end of the month accelerates, and the slaughter weight decreases slightly. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - Demand - Side Situation: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, the sales of white strips are slow, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,000 heads, an increase of 8,000 heads from the previous day, 48,000 heads week - on - week, and 129,000 heads month - on - month [10]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 46 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a decrease of 70.8 yuan/head week - on - week [11][13] 3. Data Overview - 15kg Piglet Price: In the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: In the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin week - on - week [17]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [17]. - Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate: In the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [17]. - National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs: As of the week of September 18th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [17].