建信期货原油日报-20250924

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The significant increase in US crude oil exports has led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories, but the weekly export volume fluctuates greatly. Refinery crude oil input has begun to decline continuously, and refineries will enter the maintenance season later, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Distillate inventories have been increasing since reaching the lowest point of the year in July, with a significantly faster growth rate than the same period in previous years. Diesel consumption is weak, and the 4th quarter is about to enter the consumption peak season, so the later changes should be monitored. The data is slightly bearish. EIA and IEA have raised the global crude oil supply forecast in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. Oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium term, and the main strategy is to hold a bearish view. In operation, short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. Grouped by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $62.30, closing price was $62.34, highest price was $63, lowest price was $61.61, with a decline of 0.10% and a trading volume of 20.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.98, closing price was $66.01, highest price was $66.67, lowest price was $65.35, with a decline of 0.05% and a trading volume of 29.58 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.6 yuan/barrel, closing price was 473.1 yuan/barrel, highest price was 478.7 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 471.6 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 2.29% and a trading volume of 10.21 million lots [6]. - Operation Suggestions: The main strategy is to hold a bearish view on oil prices in the medium term, and short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. 2. Industry News - Kuwait's oil minister stated that Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [7]. - According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day month-on-month in July, dropping to 9.201 million barrels per day [7]. - Market news indicated that Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21]