建信期货国债日报-20250924

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy showed marginal weakness in August, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate sector expanding again, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery remains weak. Policy - driven infrastructure investment also slowed down significantly, dragging down overall investment. However, there is no need for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September, and the policy may focus more on expanding fiscal and credit policies and supporting the real estate market, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but the bond market still lacks a breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal this week and the performance of cross - quarter funds. As the long holiday approaches, the bond market may stabilize and slightly rebound [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: LPR remaining unchanged was in line with expectations, but the one - day 14 - day reverse repurchase and the approaching feedback period for the new fund redemption rules caused market concerns. Coupled with the late - session stock market rally, treasury bond futures fell across the board [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebounded across the board, with medium - and long - term yields rising by about 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.799%, up 1.15bp [9] - Funding Market: The funding pressure eased marginally, and the open market turned to net withdrawal. There were 287 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 276.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined, and most short - term funding rates fell. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fell 1.36bp to 1.414%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.36bp to 1.475%. Medium - and long - term funds remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained little changed at 1.65% [10] - Conclusion: The bond market pressure may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF renewal this week and cross - quarter funds. As the long holiday approaches, the bond market may stabilize and slightly rebound [12] 2. Industry News - The central bank announced that the 1 - year and over - 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, in line with market expectations. Dongfang Jincheng's Wang Qing team believes that policy rates and LPR may still be cut by the end of the year to boost domestic demand and stabilize the property market [13] - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng introduced that as of the end of June this year, China's banking industry's total assets were nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first in the world; the stock and bond markets ranked second in the world; and the foreign exchange reserve scale ranked first in the world for 20 consecutive years. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China optimized policies such as down - payment ratios and mortgage rates, and reduced existing mortgage rates, saving over 50 million households about 300 billion yuan in interest payments annually. By the end of June this year, the number of financing platforms decreased by 60% compared with March 2023, and the scale of financial debts decreased by over 50% [14] - China's government debt balance has exceeded 90 trillion yuan. The National People's Congress Standing Committee's Pre - working Committee and the Financial and Economic Committee of the National People's Congress suggested strengthening the management of assets formed by government debt [15] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on September 23, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts [6] - Other Data: It also mentions various data such as the spread between main - contract tenors of treasury bond futures, the spread between different - variety main - contracts of treasury bond futures, the term structure and trend of SHIBOR, the weighted interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the fixed - rate curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][17][18][21][24][26][31][35][37]