建信期货集运指数日报-20250924

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The SCFIS has fallen below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks, and the freight rates in October have been further reduced. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. Attention should be paid to whether the freight rate reduction rate can slow down and whether the bottom can be formed. The tense situation in the Middle East may support the far - month contracts. There may be a low - buying opportunity for the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has dropped below 1300 points for ten consecutive weeks. In October, the freight rates are further reduced. For example, in the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, Maersk's quotes for the first and second weeks of October are about $200 lower than those in late September, and other airlines have followed suit. The spot freight rates show a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an expanding decline. There may be a low - buying opportunity for the December contract, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - From September 15th to 19th, the demand for China's export container transportation was weak, and the freight rates in the ocean - going routes continued to adjust with an expanding decline in the composite index. The national industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with high - tech manufacturing leading the growth. On September 19th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped by 14.3%. In the European route, the German economic situation is still低迷, and the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped by 8.8%. In the Mediterranean route, the freight rate dropped by 5.8%. In the North American route, the US consumer confidence index hit a new low since May, and the freight rates to the US West and East basic ports dropped by 31.0% and 22.7% respectively. There are also updates on the Middle - East situation including actions of the Israeli military and Hamas in Gaza [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From September 15th to 22nd, the SCFIS for the European route dropped from 1440.24 to 1254.92, a decrease of 12.9%. The SCFIS for the US West route dropped from 1349.84 to 1193.64, a decrease of 11.6% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data for various contracts on September 23rd are provided, including EC2510, EC2512, etc. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1,100.0, a settlement price of 1,085.4, a decline of 2.0, and a decline rate of 0.18%. The trading volume was 28,527, and the open interest was 41,508 with a change of - 4,522 [6]