建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250924

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Futures continued to be weak, dampening market sentiment. Traders reduced prices to promote sales, leading to a decline in spot prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand. The market was in a state of low - level weak oscillation due to limited demand drive and insufficient market confidence [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7105 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.67%), with a trading volume of 180,000 lots and an increase in positions by 8837 lots to 589,676 lots. PP2601 closed at 6842 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan (-0.77%), with an increase in positions by 7134 lots to 654,200 lots [5][6]. - Supply - side: For polypropylene, the upstream maintenance level exceeded expectations, with more shutdown devices, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization and output. Due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH plants continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating supply - side pressure. Some maintenance plants will restart this week, and output may increase month - on - month. For PE, the maintenance volume declined from the high level, and the supply pressure increased month - on - month [6]. - Demand - side: Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other fields remained flat. The peak - season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and orders were at a relatively low level year - on - year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a situation of "peak season without prosperity", which had limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of social inventory in the middle stream was slow, and it was difficult to push up prices [6]. - Macro - aspect: The expectation of interest rate cuts was implemented, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There was still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products near the double festivals, but due to insufficient market confidence, there was no large - scale replenishment behavior, and the demand drive was limited [6]. 2. Industry News - Inventory: On September 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, a cumulative increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - PE Market: The PE market price weakened and declined. The LLDPE price in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7150 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6450 - 6520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market supply trend increased, and producers still had the intention to sell at a discounted price. The propylene quotations mostly declined slightly, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The low - end transactions in the market were acceptable [7]. - PP Market: The PP market continued to decline, with a decline range of 10 - 70 yuan/ton. The new orders of downstream factories were limited, and the pre - festival procurement enthusiasm was insufficient. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6690 - 6780 yuan/ton, in East China was 6700 - 6840 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6650 - 6830 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate, L basis, and PP basis, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14]