建信期货豆粕日报-20250924

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The logic of soybean shortage after the fourth quarter has been shaken due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and its by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, with orders for Argentine soybean meal starting in mid - to late August. The supply from September to November is sufficient, and the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentina's soybean procurement and policy continuity, as well as the progress of Sino - US negotiations [6]. - With the loosening of the previous soybean shortage logic, frequent consultations between China and the US, and high inventory in reality, soybean meal prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is advisable to reduce positions to avoid risks. Potential positive factors such as the expected decline in US soybean yield and dry weather in Brazil are unlikely to be reflected in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline [6]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Soybean meal futures contracts: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all declined. The decline rates of 2601, 2509, and 2511 were - 3.37%, - 1.73%, and - 3.66% respectively. The trading volume of 2601 was 2372830, and the trading volume of 2511 was 167642 [6]. - External market: The US soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal, reducing the previous 26% soybean export tax and 24.5% soybean oil and soybean meal export taxes to 0. After the tax reduction, Argentina's soybean CIF price to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US [6]. 2. Industry News - On Monday, the Argentine government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The measure will last until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches $7 billion [7]. 3. Data Overview - USDA crop growth report: As of the week of September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the previous week was 63%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12%. The defoliation rate was 61% [15]. - Rosario Grain Exchange: Argentina's grain and by - product exports in the 2025/26 season may reach a record 105.1 million tons, with grain and oilseed shipments expected to be 64.7 million tons (62% being corn), and oil and oilmeal exports estimated at 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [15].