Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Overall: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are expected to be in high-level consolidation. The market is affected by factors such as weak downstream demand, potential domestic capacity reduction, and changes in inventory and basis [2][7]. - Rebar: Demand is sluggish, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak. The real estate industry continues to be in a downward cycle. However, there is a positive basis, and production is at a low level. The main position is net short, and the number of shorts is increasing [2][4]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory has continued to decrease, and exports are blocked. However, domestic policies may play a role. The basis is positive, and the main position is net short with an increase in shorts [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand is not improving, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak. The downstream real estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3,270, and the basis is 115, which is positive [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.8521 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease and a year-on-year increase, which is neutral [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - Main Position: The main position of rebar is net short, and the number of shorts is increasing, which is negative [2]. - Likely Positive Factors: Production remains at a low level, the spot is at a premium, and there is an expectation of domestic capacity reduction [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand continues to be weak, lower than the same period [4]. Hot-rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory has continued to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, which is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price of hot-rolled coil is 3,390, and the basis is 50, which is positive [7]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.9669 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decrease, which is neutral [7]. - Disk: The price is below the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is downward, which is negative [7]. - Main Position: The main position of hot-rolled coil is net short, and the number of shorts is increasing, which is negative [7]. - Likely Positive Factors: Demand is acceptable, the spot is at a premium, and there is an expectation of domestic capacity reduction [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: Downstream demand has entered a seasonal off-season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].
大越期货螺卷早报-20250924
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-24 02:00