大越期货生猪期货早报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound in the short term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The market should focus on the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that in September, the domestic market is gradually entering the peak season of supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased, and the pig price is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations. It is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will increase this week. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, and the overall consumption willingness of residents has increased with the approaching of the school season and long holidays, which boosts the short - term fresh pork consumption and market confidence. The base price indicates that the national average spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory shows that as of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; as of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The market trend shows that the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern. Recently, the high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of live pigs has fluctuated weakly due to the increase in supply, but the decline may be limited due to the gradual recovery of demand. The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is currently good, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot. The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include that the domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited. Bearish factors include the pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment affected by the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in domestic live pig inventory. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 15 to September 23, including prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, 2411 contract, and spot prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Guangdong. It also shows various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, including the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and the supply - side indicators such as pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory, pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter, profit, and substitution. On the demand side, it includes consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of purchase and release of reserves [14]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content.