PTA、MEG早报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures market showed a low - level oscillation. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere with fluctuating spot basis. The PTA factory inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions. It's expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly influenced by the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The basis weakened significantly. The port inventory increased from a low level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The market sentiment is dragged down by new device progress and the weak terminal market. It's predicted that the price of ethylene glycol will adjust at a low level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to device and production - sales changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The spot price of PTA on September 24th was 4468, with a basis of - 88 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium on the futures market. The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions. The 9 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with a price negotiation range around 4450 - 4490. The 10 - month goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 70 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis was 01 - 79 [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The basis weakened significantly during the day, with the spot negotiation price at a premium of 77 - 91 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the futures price rebounded slightly after reaching a low level, and the basis stabilized. The price of recent shipping goods in US dollars dropped to 504 - 505 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The spot price was 4292, with a basis of 80 for the 01 contract, indicating a discount on the futures market. The inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions [6][7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Tables - PTA: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity increased, with the production capacity reaching 9472 in December 2025. The production load, output, supply, and demand all showed certain fluctuations. For example, in September 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the production load was 83.00%, the output was 626, the total supply was 626, and the total demand was 624 [12]. - MEG: From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol also changed. For instance, in September 2025, the total production was 58, the total supply was 234, and the total demand was 233 [13]. - Price - related Data - Included data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, start - up rates, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, basis, spot spreads, and processing margins, covering multiple years from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23][24][30][33][40]. - Inventory - related Data - Included data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and various polyester fiber inventories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, spanning from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][47]. - Start - up Rate - related Data - Included data on the start - up rates of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (PTA industrial chain polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms), covering the years from 2020 to 2025 [53][57]. - Profit - related Data - Included data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), covering the years from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][66]. 3.5 Influence Factor Summary - Positive Factors - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12th decreased by 928500 barrels, with a larger decline than expected. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 504000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 29600 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 234700 barrels, while refined oil inventory increased by 404600 barrels [8]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there is a slight expectation of demand activation in the market [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device was shut down for maintenance, with an expected restart in November [10]. - Negative Factors - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [11].