大越期货沥青期货早报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The processing loss of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, lowering supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; with the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. Different types of asphalt and related product开工率 show mixed trends, with most below the historical average [7]. - Cost: The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. - Lido: The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support [12]. - Risks: High - priced supply has insufficient demand; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price and the profit difference trend between asphalt and coking products [13][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventory of different types decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.14%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [17]. - Price Trends: The report provides trends of asphalt basis, spreads between main contracts, asphalt - crude oil price, crude oil cracking spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [19][22][25]. - Fundamental Analysis - Profit: The asphalt profit and the profit difference between coking and asphalt show certain trends over time [37][40]. - Supply: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil and Venezuelan crude oil production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - Inventory: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - Import and Export: The report shows the trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - Demand: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [80][83][86]. - Supply - Demand Balance: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, showing data such as monthly production, import, export, and inventory [106].