大越期货菜粕早报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2400 and 2460. The market sentiment is neutral. The basis is 93, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is also bullish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish. The main short positions are decreasing and the funds are flowing in, which is bearish. The market will return to a volatile pattern in the short term due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff reduction [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From September 15th to 23rd, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2540 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was mostly 0. The average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2974 - 3038 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume fluctuated between 5.77 - 25.9 tons. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 410 - 458 yuan/ton [13]. - From September 15th to 23rd, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract fluctuated between 2447 - 2528 yuan/ton, the far - month 2605 contract fluctuated between 2328 - 2397 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) fluctuated between 2540 - 2620 yuan/ton [15]. - From September 11th to 23rd, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10383 to 9245 [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The report does not provide detailed position data other than the fact that the main short positions are decreasing and the funds are flowing in. Other Market Conditions - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [18]. - The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level [20]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [23]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [25]. - The rapeseed processing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [27]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [35].