大越期货尿素早报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state where the overall supply exceeds demand in China. The daily production and operating rate are slightly declining but still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The industrial demand shows a mixed situation with the compound fertilizer operating rate rising and the melamine operating rate being neutral, while the agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policy and other reasons. The report expects the UR contract to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the urea market are the strong international price and the weak domestic demand. The main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been fluctuating weakly recently. The daily production and operating rate are slightly down but still high, and the inventory is high. The industrial demand has a mixed performance, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season. The overall supply in China exceeds demand, and the theoretical export profit is at a new high, but the export volume has decreased. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 42, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.5%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (+5.1), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1658 | - 2 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | 0 | Basis | 42 | 2 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1658 | - 2 | | FOB China | 3200 | | UR05 | 1713 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1734 | 0 | The warehouse receipt quantity is 7535 (unchanged), the UR comprehensive inventory is 142.1 million tons (unchanged), the UR manufacturer inventory is 95.7 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 46.4 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]