原油成品油早报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels, with fundamental factors and geopolitical sanctions risks diverging. The U.S. President Trump called on European countries to "stop buying" Russian oil, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The EU's sanctions on Russia targeted shadow fleets, Russian banks, and Russian oil buyers. Russia's refined oil exports declined significantly due to drone attacks, while its crude oil net exports remained high. Iran's crude oil exports did not decline. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased slightly, with the absolute level similar to that in 2019, the highest in the past five years. In September's preliminary data, OPEC's crude oil net exports rebounded significantly. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased significantly. Global refinery profits were divided, with U.S. refinery profits rebounding, domestic refinery operations rising overall, and European and American refinery operations declining. Under the baseline scenario, there will be a surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in the fourth quarter, and an expected surplus of 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous levels, the fundamentals will turn to the off - season, and the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The absolute price center in the fourth quarter is expected to fall to $55 - 60 per barrel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From September 17 - 23, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated from $62.28 - $64.05, with a change of $1.13; BRENT prices fluctuated from $66.57 - $67.95, with a change of $1.06; DUBAI prices fluctuated from $69.74 - $70.50, with a change of $0.07. Other related product prices such as domestic gasoline, diesel, and various oil - related spreads also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a defense agreement, which is unlikely to change Saudi Arabia's energy relations with India. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in July decreased by 551,000 barrels per day to 9.201 million barrels per day. Iran's Foreign Minister set off for New York to participate in the United Nations General Assembly, and Iran will hold foreign - minister - level talks with Germany, France, and the UK [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of September 12, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 2.532 million barrels per day to 5.277 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels to 13.482 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 2.19%; the four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.692 million barrels per day, a decrease of 579,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. From September 12 - 18, the operating rate of major refineries fluctuated, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased, domestic gasoline and diesel production increased, inventories increased, the comprehensive profit of major refineries strengthened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4][5].