大越期货豆粕早报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures in the US oscillate and close higher. After being pressured by the negative impact of Argentina's tariff policy, it undergoes technical consolidation. It oscillates above the 1000-point mark, awaiting further guidance on the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the harvesting weather in the US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean meal oscillates and declines, influenced by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation. The relatively high arrival of imported soybeans in September and the discount of spot prices suppress the market expectations. In the short term, it may return to an oscillating pattern [8]. - The domestic soybean oscillates and declines, affected by the US soybean trend and technical consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppress the market. In the short term, it is affected by the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No specific content provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - The Sino-US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, which is a short-term negative for US soybeans. However, there are still uncertainties in the Sino-US trade negotiations and the US soybean weather. The US market will maintain an oscillation above the 1000-point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent Sino-US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in September, and the soybean meal inventory in oil mills has reached a relatively high level in September. The weather of US soybeans and the Sino-US trade negotiations are in a critical period. The impact of the September USDA report is relatively neutral, and the soybean meal will return to an interval oscillation pattern in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recovery of soybean meal demand from August to September supports the price expectation of soybean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of the Sino-US trade negotiations, the soybean meal returns to an interval oscillation pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean-producing areas and the uncertainties of the Sino-US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation in the short term, awaiting further guidance on the US soybean yield and the subsequent Sino-US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans [13]. - The soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills is still at a low level [13]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of the US soybean-producing areas [13]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in September [13]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continues [13]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [14]. - The expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans [14]. - The expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price is 2870 (East China), with a basis of -58, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 116.44 million tons, an increase of 2.48% from last week's 113.62 million tons and a decrease of 13.54% compared to the same period last year. The price is below the 20-day moving average and moving downward [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 222, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 73.2 million tons, an increase of 0.21% from last week's 731.7 million tons and an increase of 6.35% compared to the same period last year. The price is below the 20-day moving average and moving downward [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and the capital has flowed in [10].