工业硅期货早报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,790 - 9,060 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling continues to decrease, while the demand-side shows continuous recovery in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,305 - 51,215 for the 2511 contract [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production; the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3,050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, an 0.84% increase [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the output of silicon wafers was 13.92 GW, a 0.28% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 23, the price of N - type dense material was 51,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,390 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [8]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various industrial silicon contracts and spot prices have shown different degrees of decline or stability [14]. - Inventory: Different types of inventories, including social, sample enterprise, and main port inventories, have increased to varying degrees [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly production of sample enterprises has increased, and the capacity utilization rates in different regions have also changed [14]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Price: The prices of polysilicon contracts have decreased, while the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained stable [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon wafers and photovoltaic cells has increased, while the domestic and European inventories of components have decreased [16]. - Production: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown different trends of increase or stability [16].