建信期货铝日报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The AD Index adjusted during the day, and the commodity index performed weakly. The main contract of SHFE aluminum continued to decline, with the 2511 contract closing down 0.41% at 2877. The spread between the October and November contracts turned to par, and the far - month contracts still maintained a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss narrowed by 200 to about - 1530 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [7]. - Alumina adjusted with the sector, and the callback amplitude deepened. At this price, some manufacturers are again on the verge of profit and loss, and cost support is gradually emerging. The short - selling risk is relatively high, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow SHFE aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. The peak season of "Golden September" has arrived, but the inflection point of inventory has not appeared. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, it is expected that the inventory pressure will be relieved. SHFE aluminum has returned to the previous oscillation range, and pay attention to the support at the 20,500 level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - SHFE Aluminum: The main 2511 contract of SHFE aluminum closed down 0.41% at 20,685. The 10 - 11 spread turned to par, and the import window remained closed with the spot import loss narrowing [7]. - Bauxite: Northern domestic bauxite production has not resumed, with low probability of resuming this year. There are both upward and downward pressures on bauxite prices. Imported bauxite is oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to Guinea's mining rights policy [7]. - Alumina: It adjusted with the sector, with a deeper callback. Cost support is emerging at the price of 2877, and short - selling risk is high. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Its trend follows SHFE aluminum. Pay attention to the long AD short AL strategy due to the peak season and policy changes [7]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Operating capacity is high. Although the peak season has arrived, the inventory inflection point is delayed. It is expected that inventory pressure will ease. Pay attention to the 20,500 support level [7]. 3.2 Industry News - EGA's IPO: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest listings in the Middle East. Its valuation is estimated to be between $10 billion and $15 billion. It has entrusted several banks for the IPO and hired Rothschild as a consultant. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle East aluminum assets and further consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [8][10]. - Japanese Aluminum Can Demand: In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures: On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different regional registrations [9].