大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, but there are some bullish factors such as geopolitical unrest providing cost support and demand gradually entering the peak season. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish overall, with similar bullish and bearish factors as LLDPE [4][7] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent oil price is volatile. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7150 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 45, and the premium - discount ratio is 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Considering the Fed's interest rate cut, volatile oil prices, the peak - season but still relatively weak demand for agricultural films, and the moderately high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to be volatile today [4] - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - Bearish Factors: The year - on - year demand is still weak [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in August, the official and Caixin PMIs improved, China's export volume increased year - on - year but decreased compared to July, the Fed cut interest rates, and the oil price is volatile. The downstream market is gradually turning to the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6780 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 62, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.9%, which is bearish [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000 tons), which is neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Given the Fed's interest rate cut, volatile oil prices, stable demand for downstream pipes and plastic woven products, and the moderately high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to be volatile today [7] - Bullish Factors: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support, and demand is gradually entering the peak season [8] - Bearish Factors: The year - on - year demand is still weak [8] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7105 (-25), the basis is 45, the import price in US dollars is 831 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7262 (-2), the import spread is - 112 (+2). The warehouse receipt is 12,736 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (unchanged), and the social inventory is 535,000 tons (-12,000 tons) [10] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6842 (-31), the basis is - 62 (+11), the import price in US dollars is 835 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 7296 (-2), the import spread is - 516 (-18). The warehouse receipt is 13,413 (-64), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 551,000 tons (unchanged), and the social inventory is 283,000 tons (unchanged) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]