Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Spreads: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - 开工 and Inventory: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - 开工 Rates: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - Upstream Prices and Spreads: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - Inventory: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - 开工 Rates: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - Refined - Product Prices and Spreads: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - Refined - Product Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - Futures Prices and Spreads: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - Supply - Demand: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - 开工 Rates: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:
《能源化工》日报-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-24 03:10