Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and there will be a style switch and partial withdrawal in the short - term [3]. - There is no strong incremental negative news, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may reach a high in the range of 1.8 - 1.83%. Without strong positive news, the short - term downward space of the interest rate is limited, and there may be resistance around 1.75% [3]. - Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. However, with the approaching end of the month, the expiration of derivative contracts brings greater volatility risks [3]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate. The decline in iron ore shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand support the strong operation of iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of crude oil shows marginal increase concerns, and the future trend needs to pay attention to the evolution of geopolitical issues [3]. - The high supply pressure of urea continues, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs to be concerned [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - Stock Index: As the long holiday approaches, the capital market becomes less active. There will be a style switch in the short - term, with blue - chip indexes remaining firm. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The open - market operation turns to net withdrawal, weakening the bond market sentiment. The Treasury bond futures generally decline. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy, and try to go long with a light position when the market sentiment stabilizes at the low level, but pay attention to taking profits in time. For the basis - trading strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can participate in the basis narrowing strategy [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold maintains a high - level shock, and its volatility may rise again. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by emergencies, but the sentiment fades quickly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [3]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The EC market is highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Sector - Steel: Steel exports support the valuation of the black industry, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to try short - term long positions on pullbacks and narrow the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures contracts for January [3]. - Iron Ore: With the decline in shipments, the recovery of hot metal production, and restocking demand, iron ore prices are supported to run strongly. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [3]. - Coking Coal: The coal price in the production area is stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by the downstream restocking demand, the futures market has an upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. - Coke: After the second round of price cuts for coke is implemented, some coke enterprises start to raise prices, and the futures market has a rebound expectation in advance. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - Copper: The market fluctuates and consolidates, and spot transactions are good below 80,000 yuan. The main contract is expected to trade between 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [3]. - Aluminum Oxide: The price breaks below 2900 yuan, and the downward space is limited due to cost support. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 yuan [3]. - Aluminum: The price drops, and trading volume picks up slightly. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The pre - holiday restocking demand provides short - term support for the spot price. The main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,600 yuan [3]. - Zinc: The social inventory decreases during the peak season. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. The main contract is expected to trade between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [3]. - Tin: The import of tin ore remains at a low level in August, and the fundamentals provide support. The operating range is expected to be between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan [3]. - Nickel: The market maintains a weak shock, and the fundamentals change little. The main contract is expected to trade between 119,000 - 124,000 yuan [3]. - Stainless Steel: The market maintains a narrow - range shock. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of downstream enterprises. The main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,200 yuan [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: Concerns about the marginal increase in supply have eased. The future trend needs to pay attention to geopolitical issues. It is recommended to operate in a band for the unilateral strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. Wait for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [3]. - Urea: The high - supply pressure continues. Attention should be paid to the order - taking progress of urea factories before the National Day. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a short - term support level at 1610 - 1630 yuan/ton. On the option side, after the implied volatility rises, it is recommended to narrow the spread at high levels [3]. - PX: The supply - demand expectation is positive, but the cost side is strong. PX may be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on the PX11 contract in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short [3]. - PTA: The supply - demand expectation improves, but it is still weak in the medium - term, with limited driving force. It is recommended to go long on TA in the short - term or wait for a rebound to go short. Treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse spread [3]. - Short - fiber: There is no obvious driving force in the short - term, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 yuan, with limited upward and downward driving forces [3]. - Bottle Chip: The demand for bottle chips improves periodically, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the upward space of the processing margin is limited. The trading strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin on the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [3]. - Ethanol: The expectation of new device commissioning and the weak terminal market put pressure on MEG. It is recommended to sell call options on EG2601 - C - 4400 at high levels and use the EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [3]. - Caustic Soda: As the long holiday approaches, middle - stream enterprises adopt a wait - and - see attitude, and the market drops significantly. Hold short positions [3]. - PVC: The enthusiasm for spot procurement is average, and the market weakens. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Benzene: The supply - demand expectation weakens, and the price driving force is limited. BZ2603 will follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices in the short - term [3]. - Styrene: The oil price is expected to be weak, putting pressure on the absolute price of styrene. It is recommended to go short on the absolute price rebound of EB10 and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level [3]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost and supply - demand driving forces of BR are limited, and it may follow the fluctuations of natural rubber and commodities. Pay attention to the support around 11,400 yuan for BR2511 [3]. - LLDPE: The basis strengthens, and the trading volume is fair. The upward and downward space is limited. Wait and see near the previous low [3]. - PP: The number of maintenance increases, and the trading volume improves. In the short - term, the high - maintenance situation continues, supply decreases, demand increases, and inventory decreases. Wait and see in the short - term [3]. - Methanol: The inventory at the port continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. The downward space is currently limited. Wait and see [3]. Agricultural Sector - Meal: Argentina cancels the export tax, putting pressure on the two - meal market again. It will have a short - term weak adjustment [3]. - Live Pig: The slaughter pressure is large, and the spot market is difficult to improve before the National Day. Exit the reverse spread strategy and wait and see [3]. - Corn: Under the bearish expectation, the market fluctuates weakly [3]. - Oil: Argentina cancels the grain export tax, causing the market to plunge. Pay attention to the support at 9000 yuan for the main contract of P in the short - term [3]. - Sugar: The overseas supply outlook is broad. Exit short positions and take profits [3]. - Cotton: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing the supply pressure. Go short in the short - term [3]. - Egg: The domestic sales in some local markets still support the demand to a certain extent, but the long - term trend is bearish. Control the position of short positions [3]. - Apple: Early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is fair. The main contract is expected to trade around 8300 yuan [3]. - Jujube: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the futures market fluctuates. It is bearish in the medium - and long - term [3]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand surplus situation is difficult to reverse, and the market of soda ash weakens. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - Glass: The production and sales weaken, and the market drops. Wait and see [3]. - Rubber: Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price fluctuates strongly in the short - term. Wait and see [3]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakens, and the price of industrial silicon drops. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon: Suppressed by fundamental sentiment, the price of polysilicon drops significantly. Wait and see for the time being [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The driving force weakens, and the market fluctuates mainly. The fundamental situation is in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [3].
广发期货日评-20250924
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-24 06:39