瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. In the Yunnan production area, rainfall disruptions still exist, and with strong purchasing demand from processing plants, raw material prices remain firm. In the Hainan production area, the weather is favorable for tapping operations, and raw materials are being produced normally. Although Typhoon "Hikaa" is approaching, local processing plants are not actively competing for raw materials due to average orders and profit margins. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, but the decline rate has narrowed. The bonded warehouse is still reducing inventory, while the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory. Overseas shipments are arriving at the port and being warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the warehousing volume at Qingdao warehouses has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The domestic sales of winter tires in the semi - steel tire segment are in the concentrated production period, which still supports the overall production. However, the demand in the replacement market for all - steel tires has not improved significantly, and some enterprises face pressure in foreign trade exports. Currently, although some enterprises still face shortages, overall sales performance is below expectations, and some enterprises' inventories may increase. To relieve pressure, some enterprises may flexibly control production. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract... (The text is incomplete here) [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 75 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12465 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 153328 lots, with a daily decrease of 1131 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 54216 lots, with a daily decrease of 4506 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26821 lots, with a daily decrease of 684 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11684 lots, with a daily decrease of 75 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 155830 tons, with a daily increase of 810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 44856 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15250 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1835 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14780 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14730 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 70 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 820 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 745 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13180 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 132 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 62 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.73 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.3 Thai baht/kg, with no change. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 55.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.1 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 151 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 11.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.88 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 26.84 million tons, with an increase of 0.89 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a weekly increase of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.13 days, with a weekly increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.02 days, with a weekly increase of 0.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with an increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with an increase of 1.09 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.06%, with a daily decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.41%, with a daily decrease of 0.42 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.95%, with a daily increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.97%, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - From September 21st to September 27th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in northern and central Vietnam, western Thailand, southern Myanmar, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, which has an increasing impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there are no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has a decreasing impact on tapping operations. As of September 21st, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.76%. The bonded area inventory is 69,400 tons, a decrease of 5.07%; the general trade inventory is 391,800 tons, an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses has increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate has decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of September 18th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [2]