沪铜产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. The supply of copper concentrate is still tight, and the cost - support logic for copper prices remains. Domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge, while demand has increased slightly due to the decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 79,960 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,964.50 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 172,444 lots, down 850 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 16,618 lots, down 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, down 400 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 105,814 tons, up 11,760 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,775 tons, down 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 27,419 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 80,045 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 80,070 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 59 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 59.50 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 73.11 dollars/ton, down 0.67 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.80 dollars/kiloton, up 0.50 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 70,340 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 71,040 yuan/metal ton, up 20 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are both 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,314.97 billion yuan, up 404.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.29%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.09%, unchanged. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 13.02%, up 0.0008; the at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.27, down 0.064 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive, and "Fed Whisperer" pointed out that this may open the door for further interest rate cuts. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Chinese diplomats and leaders met with a US congressional delegation, and the Sino - US relationship shows a stabilizing trend. The Minister of Industry and Information Technology said that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to cultivate emerging industries and open up new tracks such as humanoid robots, brain - computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information [2].