Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient, and the negotiation center on the spot side is under continuous pressure. Some industry players expect a certain reduction in the mainstream supply price. [2] - Before the National Day holiday, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up. It is expected that buying will gradually pick up, and the inventory level is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. The semi - steel tire market has some support for overall production, while the all - steel tire market has no obvious improvement in demand and some export pressure. [2] - The short - term capacity utilization rate of enterprises may be slightly reduced, and the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 11,700. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 58,650, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,938. [2] - The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,570 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 tons. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,550 - 11,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,500 - 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 - 150 yuan/ton. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 80 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil is 67.63 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.87 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 845 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,060 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - WTI crude oil is 63.41 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.13 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 66.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 23,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.85%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.21 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 69.72%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.76 percentage points. [2] - The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 658 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 149 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 33,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 7,820 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 390 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.66%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.09 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.13 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.02 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.08 days. [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, or - 2.29%. [2] - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 135,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,500 tons, or + 5.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250924
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-24 09:17