瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250924

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Although the supply of industrial silicon has decreased due to the reduction in the start - up rate, the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged. The demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is generally flat. The current industry inventory is still high, and the upward momentum of industrial silicon prices will gradually weaken after reaching 9000. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the position of the main contract is 270,931 lots, down 2765 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 67,515 lots, up 224 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 49,963 lots, up 161 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 400 yuan, down 5 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 480 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,120 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1337.59 tons, up 1220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2635.83 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4154.82 tons; the weekly start - up rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.12%, down 1.59 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, up 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, up 4154.82 tons [2]. Industry News - On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in the Hetian Kungang Economic and Technological Development Zone (Non - ferrous Metal Industrial Park) in Luopu County, Hetian Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current start - up rate of industrial silicon is 33.12%, down 1.91% month - on - month. There are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region, and some enterprises plan to cut production. Most manufacturers in the southwest will operate until the end of October and have no plans to resume production. In the northwest region, manufacturers have stable start - up rates, especially in Yili, where large factories have expectations of resuming production. However, the overall oversupply situation has not improved [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the market is declining, profits are decreasing, and the expectation of production increase is declining, with a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, inventory and start - up rates are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. But due to limited price increases in downstream links and expected contraction in long - term photovoltaic market demand, the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon may be restricted. In the aluminum alloy field, inventory is rising, prices are flat, the start - up situation is stable, but demand is average, with limited pulling effect on industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand from the three major downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat [2].