瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the zinc market presents a complex situation. On the supply side, the growth of zinc ore imports has slowed down, but the processing fees for zinc ore have increased, and the rising sulfuric acid prices have enlarged smelters' profit margins, leading to increased production enthusiasm and high refined zinc output. However, the tight overseas zinc ore supply has widened import losses, reduced the inflow of imported zinc, and the export window is close to opening. On the demand side, the downstream market shows a lack - luster peak season. The inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not significant, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, zinc prices have fallen to a low level. Domestic social inventories have decreased due to less arrivals and slow downstream procurement. Overseas LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has increased, supporting zinc prices. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong, and the price has broken through the 22,000 - yuan support level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 21,860 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,889.5 dollars/ton, down 10.5 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 253,828 lots, up 3,546 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 12,065 lots, down 614 lots. - The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 57,357 tons, up 744 tons; the SHFE inventory is 99,315 tons, up 4,666 tons; the LME inventory is 45,775 tons, down 1,050 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,600 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 43.16 dollars/ton, down 2.83 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,200 tons, up 4,200 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0814 million tons, up 30,100 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.35 million tons, unchanged; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.3 million tons, down 10,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; the housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. - The automobile output is 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; the air - conditioner output is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.9%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.9%, down 1 percentage point. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 6.66%, up 0.01 percentage point; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 10.64%, up 0.08 percentage point [3]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed Chairman Powell said that the US stock valuation is quite high, reiterated the dual challenges of rising inflation and falling employment, and did not clearly state whether to cut interest rates in October. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in September hit a two - month low, and the preliminary values of the service industry PMI and the composite PMI both hit three - month lows, but all were above the 50 - point boom - bust line. The growth has slowed down from the recent peak in July, and enterprises reduced their recruitment scale in September [3].