瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250924

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Driven by the rise in international oil prices, EB2511 fluctuated strongly and closed around 6928. The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased due to the continuous shutdown of the 800,000 - tonne device of Guangdong Petrochemical and the maintenance of two 1.2 - million - tonne devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical last week. The downstream operating rate fluctuated slightly, with the operating rates of EPS and styrene - butadiene rubber rising, those of PS and ABS falling, and that of UPR remaining stable. Factory and East China port inventories decreased, while South China port inventory increased. Affected by the rise in pure benzene and ethylene prices, the non - integrated cost of styrene increased last week. Large domestic devices are taking turns for maintenance, and this maintenance cycle may last for several months. This week, the 800,000 - tonne device of Guangdong Petrochemical restarted, and the 620,000 - tonne device of Zhenhai Liande is planned to stop, so the production and capacity utilization rate may increase periodically. The commissioning of new devices is postponed to October, and the overall supply pressure of styrene in September shows a downward trend [2]. - This week, the load of EPS, PS, and ABS devices is expected to be slightly adjusted with little change. Inventory has returned to the destocking cycle, but the current inventory pressure is still high. In terms of cost, the global crude oil supply - demand is weak, but the US sanctions on some oil - producing countries may be upgraded, and international oil prices rose significantly yesterday. In the short term, EB2511 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. Technically, pay attention to the support of the lower Bollinger Band around 6845 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 7034 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) was 411,907, with a decrease of 11,208; the closing price was 6,928 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 58. The closing price of the November contract was 6,928 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 holders was 399,631 lots, with a decrease of 1,289; the short position was 441,217 lots, with a decrease of 7,184. The number of warehouse receipts was 905 lots, with no change. The spot price of styrene was 7,130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 48. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 855 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 11; the CFR China intermediate price was 865 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of styrene in the Northeast region was 6,800 yuan/ton, with no change; in the South China region, it was 7,075 yuan/ton, with no change; in the North China region, it was 6,820 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30; in the East China region, it was 6,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 846 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 722.17 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 3; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 657 cents/gallon, with a decrease of 8. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,900 yuan/ton, with no change; in the East China market, it was 5,840 yuan/ton, with no change; in the North China market, it was 5,950 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total operating rate of styrene was 73.44%, with a decrease of 1.54%. The national inventory of styrene was 216,283 tons, with a decrease of 3,994. The total inventory in the East China main port was 186,500 tons, with an increase of 27,500; the trade inventory was 98,500 tons, with an increase of 20,500. The operating rate of EPS was 61.74%, with an increase of 0.72; the operating rate of ABS was 69.8%, with a decrease of 0.2 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PS was 61.2%, with a decrease of 0.7; the operating rate of UPR was 34%, with no change; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 70.43%, with an increase of 0.86 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the weekly output of styrene decreased by 2.03% to 346,800 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.54% to 73.44% [2]. - From September 12th to 18th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene increased by 0.14% to 278,300 tons compared with last week [2]. - As of September 18th, the factory inventory of styrene decreased by 1.81% to 216,300 tons compared with last week; as of September 22nd, the inventory in East China ports increased by 17.30% to 186,500 tons compared with last week, and the inventory in South China ports decreased by 37.61% to 13,600 tons compared with last week [2]. - As of September 17th, the non - integrated cost of styrene was 7,548 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was - 368 yuan/ton [2].