瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250924

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Driven by the rise in international oil prices, L2601 fluctuated strongly and closed at 7,142 yuan/ton. Affected by the restart of some devices last week, PE production and capacity utilization increased month - on - month. Downstream demand is seasonally recovering, driving the downstream start - up rate to rise. Recently, the inventory of production enterprises and social inventory decreased month - on - month, and the total inventory pressure is not large. In the short term, L2601 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices, and technically, attention should be paid to the support of the Bollinger Band range near 7,084 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average near 7,182 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,142 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,142 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,182 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,218 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The trading volume was 191,081 lots, up 10,438 lots; the open interest was 571,775 lots, down 17,901 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 40, unchanged. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 423,733 lots, down 5,604 lots; the short positions were 479,444 lots, down 8,589 lots; the net long positions were - 55,711 lots, up 2,985 lots [3] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,166.96 yuan/ton, down 3.91 yuan; in East China, it was 7,301.67 yuan/ton, down 3.81 yuan. The basis was 24.96 yuan, down 40.91 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.7 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 597.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.87 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 846 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical start - up rate was 80.36%, up 2.32 percentage points [3] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film was 51.78%, up 0.48 percentage points; for pipes, it was 31.83%, up 0.16 percentage points; for agricultural film, it was 26.75%, up 2.63 percentage points [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 6.59%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.25%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.3%, up 0.04 percentage points; for at - the - money call options, it was 10.31%, up 0.04 percentage points [3] Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, China's PE weekly production increased by 2.97% month - on - month to 631,000 tons, and the weekly capacity utilization increased by 2.23% month - on - month to 80.36%. The average start - up rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.8% month - on - month, with the agricultural film start - up rate increasing by 2.6% month - on - month. As of September 24th, the inventory of PE production enterprises was 458,300 tons, down 6.53% from the previous period; as of September 19th, the PE social inventory was 534,800 tons, down 2.17% from the previous period. As of September 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.24% week - on - week to 7,550 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 93 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 6,308 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 893 yuan/ton [3]