瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may feature stable supply and positive demand expectations. The raw material end shows strong price - holding sentiment from overseas mines and traders, with increased purchasing sentiment from domestic producers. The supply is steadily increasing slightly, while the demand is approaching the end of pre - holiday stocking, leading to more cautious buying attitudes and reduced trading activity in the spot market. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double lines above the 0 - axis with expanding green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 158,881 hands, up 2,939 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 260,654 hands, up 4,747 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 39,749 hands, up 300 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 970 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 dollars/ton, down 876 dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,210 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 45,880 tons, up 1,280 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,846.92 tons, up 8,001.60 tons; the monthly export volume is 368.91 tons, up 2.56 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 46%, down 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 139,600 MWh, up 5,800 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.80 ten - thousand yuan/ton, up 0.05 ten - thousand yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 146,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 120,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 128,500 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 3 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 ten - thousand yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 57%, up 6 percentage points; the current - month output of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,391,000 vehicles, up 148,000 vehicles; the current - month sales volume of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,395,000 vehicles, up 133,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 45.53%, up 0.54 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 9,620,000 vehicles, up 2,583,000 vehicles; the current - month export volume of new energy vehicles is 224,000 vehicles, down 10,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 1.532 million vehicles, up 714,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 26.58%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 41.93%, up 0.09 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 212,688 contracts, up 798 contracts; the total put position is 105,367 contracts, up 668 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 49.54%, up 0.1287 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.41%, up 0.0117 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, China's new energy vehicle exports reached 315,000 vehicles, a growth of 83%. From January to August 2025, the export volume was 2.02 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 51%, higher than the 24% growth rate in the same period of 2024. The export growth is mainly driven by plug - in hybrid and hybrid vehicles, especially the strong export performance of plug - in hybrid pickups. The exports are mainly to the Middle East and developed markets, especially Western Europe and Asia. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will compile a new - era development plan for intelligent and connected new energy vehicles, and promote pilot projects for access and road - going of intelligent and connected vehicles and "vehicle - road - cloud integration" applications. The "Implementation Opinions on 'Artificial Intelligence + Transportation'" will be issued. Haimuxing (688559.SH) has achieved the "oxide + lithium - metal anode" technology route and completed the commercial cycle of lithium - metal solid - state batteries for low - altitude aircraft, with the equipment being delivered in batches [2].