软商品日报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamental situation of sugar remains bearish. Brazil's peak sugar - crushing season is suppressing international sugar prices, there are clear expectations of increased production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, and the global sugar supply - demand balance is shifting to surplus. In China, the unexpectedly high import volume in August has increased the supply pressure of processed sugar, and with the end of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking and the upcoming new beet sugar season, the market lacks positive drivers [3]. - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the poor spinning profit of downstream enterprises limits their acceptance of high - priced cotton. The new - season cotton in Xinjiang is expected to have a good harvest. The price of locally purchased seed cotton has weakened with the futures price, and the large number of pre - sales of new cotton has put significant hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak, and attention should be paid to the large - scale listing of machine - picked cotton [13]. - The harvest of early - maturing Fuji apples in the western region is mostly over, and the price of early - picked Fuji is higher than last year. The remaining inventory of stored Fuji has poor quality and limited sales speed. The bag - removing time of late - maturing Fuji in the western region has been postponed by about 10 days due to rainy weather. The number of trucks arriving at the sales areas has slightly increased, but the overall sales are average, with good - quality goods selling better and some backlogs in transit warehouses [18]. - On the basis of last year's bumper harvest, the output of new - season grey dates may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline may be smaller compared to normal years. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, the overall downstream trading volume is average. With good weather in the production areas and high inventory of old dates, there may be downward pressure on jujube prices, but attention should be paid to precipitation in the production areas to prevent weather - related speculation [26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On September 24, 2025, SR01 closed at 5497 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 0.58%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - Basis: The basis between Nanning and SR01 was 336 yuan/ton on September 23, 2025, with a daily decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 7 yuan/ton. Similar data are provided for other combinations [8]. - Import Prices: The quota - free import price of Brazilian sugar was 4382 yuan/ton on September 24, 2025, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 51 yuan/ton. The out - of - quota price was 5563 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 117 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 67 yuan/ton [11]. Cotton - Futures Prices: On September 24, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.11%. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19710 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 75 yuan/ton and a growth rate of 0.38% [14]. - Spreads: The cotton basis was 1593 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The spread between cotton 01 and 05 was - 20 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton [15]. Apple - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 24, 2025, AP01 closed at 8336 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.58% and a weekly increase of 0.77%. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, with no daily or weekly change [19]. - Spreads and Other Data: The spread between AP01 and 05 was 85 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18.06% and a weekly increase of 84.78%. The main contract basis was 256 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 18.73% and a weekly decrease of 26.44% [20]. Jujube - Market Situation: New - season grey dates may see a significant year - on - year decline in output compared to last year's bumper harvest, but the decline may be smaller than in normal years. The downstream trading volume is average, and with high old - date inventory and good weather in the production areas, there may be downward pressure on prices [26]. - Futures Spreads: The spread between jujube futures 01 and 05, 05 and 09, and 09 and 01 showed different values and trends in different time periods [27][29].