Core Views - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures rebounded after a sharp decline, with short - term fluctuations around 4350 ringgit. Supported by falling production and improved exports, it may rebound to 4400 - 4450 ringgit, but will face downward pressure again later. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a rebound, testing the 9000 - yuan support. After the Malaysian palm oil's rebound ends, Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend, possibly breaking 9000 yuan to seek support at 8800 yuan. After the National Day holiday, it may show a pattern of first weakening then strengthening [3]. - CBOT soybeans and soy oil stopped falling after a sharp decline, but the fundamentals remain bearish. In the domestic market, with the end of stockpiling approaching, the market will enter the holiday mode soon. The sufficient supply of soybeans in factories and the expected increase in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may drag down the futures market. The Dalian soy oil 1 - month contract will continue to test the 8000 - yuan support after a narrow - range oscillation [4]. - Argentina's temporary cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean products has increased the crushing profit of oil mills, leading to concentrated purchases of Argentine soybeans by domestic buyers, alleviating the tight supply expectation for December - January. The short - term support for the main contract of Dalian soybean meal is in the 2900 - 2920 - yuan range, and it may have a technical rebound before the holiday. The spot price of soybean meal has been adjusted down, and the near - month basis is strengthening. The market generally believes that the price inflection point may be postponed to November [18]. Price Information Oil Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 198 | - 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 376 | 24 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 574 | - 16 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 238 | - 50 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 58 | 14 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 296 | 36 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 529 | 24 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | 67 | - 30 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 596 | 6 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 968 | 26 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1008 | 68 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 690 | 78 | | Y/M 01 | / | 2.7616 | 0.15% | | Y/M 05 | / | 2.8716 | - 1.11% | | Y/M 09 | / | 2.7401 | - 1.4% | | OI/RM 01 | / | 4.085 | 1.81% | | OI/RM 05 | / | 4.0666 | 0.13% | | OI/RM 09 | / | 3.8988 | - 0.01% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9126 | 0.8% | | Palm oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8944 | 0.99% | | Palm oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8588 | 1.27% | | BMD palm oil main contract | ringgit/ton | 4372 | 0.67% | | 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | 8970 | 110 | | 24 - degree basis in Guangzhou | yuan/ton | - 194 | - 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 470.392 | - 1.168 | | International soybean oil - crude palm oil | US dollars/ton | - 71.91 | 17.65 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Price | Variety | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8100 | 0.07% | | Soybean oil 05 | yuan/ton | 7852 | 0.59% | | Soybean oil 09 | yuan/ton | 7780 | 0.46% | | CBOT soybean oil main contract | cents/pound | 49.84 | 0.42% | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot | yuan/ton | 8270 | 120 | | Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis | yuan/ton | 64 | - 40 | | BOHO (weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 52.637 | - 8.563 | | Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil | yuan/ton | - 520 | 80 | [14] Oilseed Futures Price | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean meal 01 | 2930 | 2 | 0.07% | | Soybean meal 05 | 2749 | 16 | 0.59% | | Soybean meal 09 | 2856 | 13 | 0.46% | | Rapeseed meal 01 | 2395 | - 52 | - 2.13% | | Rapeseed meal 05 | 2319 | - 9 | - 0.39% | | Rapeseed meal 09 | 2398 | - 13 | - 0.54% | | CBOT yellow soybeans | 1012.5 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1136 | - 0.0042 | - 0.06% | [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 195 | - 57 | RM01 - 05 | 119 | - 36 | | M05 - 09 | - 110 | - 1 | RM05 - 09 | - 83 | - 9 | | M09 - 01 | - 85 | 58 | RM09 - 01 | - 36 | 45 | | Soybean meal Rizhao spot | 2930 | 0 | Soybean meal Rizhao basis | 2 | 56 | | Rapeseed meal Fujian spot | 2590 | - 65 | Rapeseed meal Fujian basis | 143 | 16 | | Soybean and rapeseed meal spot spread | 275 | - 50 | Soybean and rapeseed meal futures spread | 481 | - 25 | [20][22]
油脂油料产业日报-20250924
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-09-24 10:06