黑色产业链日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are in a short - term oscillatory pattern. Weak fundamentals restrict the rebound space, while raw material cost support and macro - expectations slow down the downward rhythm. Negative feedback pressure is accumulating, and the resistance to downward breakthrough is less than that to upward breakthrough [3]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate with weak trend. Short - term policies fall short of expectations, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After the interest rate cut, trading will be closer to the fundamentals [20]. - For coal and coke, downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase. A substantial positive policy or a significant decline in coal mine operating rates is needed to break through the previous high [30]. - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The decline space is limited as it is near the cost line [46]. - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Prices and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3164, 3227, and 3071 respectively, and those of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3357, 3365, and 3414 respectively [4]. - The基差and月差of螺纹钢and热卷had different changes compared with the previous day [4][7][9]. - Analysis - The current weak fundamentals of steel restrict the rebound space, and the negative feedback pressure is increasing [3]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 803.5, 783, and 762 respectively. The基差and月差also had corresponding changes [21]. - Fundamentals - The daily average pig iron output was 241.02 million tons, and the 45 - port疏港量was 339.17 million tons. The global shipping volume decreased by 248.3 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coal and Coke - Prices and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the焦煤仓单 cost and基差of different varieties had different changes. The焦炭仓单 cost and基差also showed corresponding trends [33]. - Analysis - Downstream pre - festival restocking improves the coking coal inventory structure, but high steel supply and inventory will suppress the price increase [30]. Ferroalloys - Prices and Spreads - For silicon iron, on September 24, 2025, the基差in Ningxia was - 18, and the月差also changed. For silicon manganese, the基差in Inner Mongolia was 198, and the月差had corresponding changes [46][49]. - Analysis - The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality [46]. Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1394, 1448, and 1307 respectively, with daily increases of 2.42%, 1.76%, and 2.67% respectively [60]. - Analysis - The supply of soda ash is strong and demand is weak. Although the export in August is better than expected, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [59]. Glass - Prices and Spreads - On September 24, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1356, 1424, and 1237 respectively, with daily increases of 3.35%, 2.52%, and 4.56% respectively [85]. - Analysis - Glass prices lack a clear trend. The upper and middle - stream inventories are high, and demand is weak. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [84].