贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250924

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Precious Metals: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - Copper: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - Aluminum: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - Zinc: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - Nickel: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - Tin: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - Silicon Industry Chain: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Movement: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - Inventory: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - Import and Processing: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - Warehouse Receipts and Inventory: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - Inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - Inventory: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - Futures Data: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - Downstream Situation: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - Inventory: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures Data: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].