广发早知道：汇总版-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market rebounded on Wednesday, with the technology sector leading the rise and consumer stocks experiencing a correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, but the basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals stopped rising and slightly corrected at high levels due to the easing of geopolitical risks, the resilience of the US economy, and the rebound of the US dollar [9]. - The shipping index (European line) EC showed a volatile trend. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices, and attention can be paid to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals showed different trends. For example, copper prices rose rapidly due to supply concerns, while the price of alumina was in a state of wide - range bottom - level oscillation with limited downward space [12][17]. - The prices of black metals were also volatile. Steel prices continued to oscillate, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal, and coke were affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [41][44][47]. - The prices of agricultural products showed different trends. The purchase of Argentine soybeans by China weakened the expected supply gap of domestic meal products, while the price of live pigs was stable in supply and demand and difficult to improve before the National Day [55][58]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Wednesday, the A - share market opened lower and then oscillated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%. The technology sector led the rise, while consumer stocks corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, with IF2512 and IH2512 rising 1.69% and 0.94% respectively, and IC2512 and IM2512 rising 3.90% and 3.21% respectively. The basis spreads of the main contracts were deeply in a discount state [2][3]. - Operation Suggestion: After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, the market digested the expectation and turned to oscillation. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price near 6600 at a light position when the index corrects to collect option premiums [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose [5]. - Funding Situation: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan. However, after the market, the central bank announced that it would conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan [5][6]. - Operation Suggestion: The bond market is still a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations on a single - side strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market Review: On September 24, the US announced a trade agreement with the EU and a support plan for Argentina, which eased the risk of asset selling in Argentina and reduced the risk - aversion sentiment. The US new home sales increased significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded. International gold prices ended a three - day rising streak, falling 0.74% to $3736.07 per ounce, and international silver prices fell slightly by 0.2% to $43.89 per ounce [7][9]. - Outlook: In the short term, gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options when the price fluctuates above $41 [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot Quotations: As of September 22, the freight quotations for Shanghai - European basic ports in the next six weeks were in a certain range. For example, Maersk's quotation was $840 - 1279/FEU and $1400 - 2038/FEU [11]. - Shipping Index: As of September 22, the SCFIS European line index was 1254.92 points, a week - on - week decrease of 14.3%. The Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 9% to $1052/TEU [11]. - Fundamentals: As of September 24, the global container shipping capacity exceeded 33 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The eurozone's composite PMI in August was 51, and the US manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7 [11]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The futures market oscillated. The market has digested the impact of the previous decline in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in an oscillating market and pay attention to the upward opportunities of contracts 12 and 02 when shipping companies raise their quotes in mid - to early October [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of September 24, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 80045 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 80030 yuan/ton [12]. - Macro: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and the "dot plot" predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year [13]. - Supply: The Grasberg mine accident continued to cause supply concerns. Freeport announced force majeure, and it is expected that the mine will not return to its pre - accident production level until 2027. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in September is expected to decline month - on - month [14]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod production increased after the decline in copper prices, and the overall spot trading improved [15]. - Inventory: LME copper inventories decreased, domestic social inventories decreased, and COMEX copper inventories increased [16]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The supply concern of global copper mines supported the copper price. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: On September 24, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, and Guizhou all decreased [17]. - Supply: In August 2025, the output of Chinese metallurgical - grade alumina increased month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to increase slightly in September [18]. - Inventory: As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina decreased week - on - week, and the total registered quantity of alumina warehouse receipts decreased compared with the previous week [18]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". It is expected that the main contract will oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On September 24, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 20680 yuan/ton, and the average premium of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply: In August 2025, the output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of aluminum water increased slightly [20]. - Demand: The downstream entered the traditional peak season, and the orders of profile enterprises improved, with the operating rates of various sectors remaining stable or increasing [20]. - Inventory: There was a positive signal in inventory. On September 24, the daily inventory of three - location aluminum ingots decreased by 0.85 tons, and the expectation of an approaching inventory inflection point was enhanced [21]. - Logic and Operation Suggestion: Although there is uncertainty at the macro level, the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is expected that the short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract referring to the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [21]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate) - Zinc: The price of zinc showed an oscillating trend. The supply was expected to be loose, and the upward space was limited. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [28]. - Tin: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply side provided support. The tin price was expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [29][32]. - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated upwards. The output of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand was stable. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 119000 - 124000 yuan/ton [32][34]. - Stainless Steel: The price of stainless steel oscillated slightly upwards. The supply pressure existed, and the demand in the peak season was not significantly released. The main contract was recommended to refer to the range of 12800 - 13200 yuan/ton [37]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. The main contract price was expected to oscillate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [41]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was stable, with rebar remaining stable and hot - rolled coil rising slightly [41]. - Cost and Profit: The cost had support, and the profit of steel decreased from a high level. The profit ranking was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The output of iron elements increased year - on - year from January to August, and the output of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil remained at a high level [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand of the five major steel products was basically flat year - on - year from January to August, and the export of steel maintained a high level [42]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products increased, and it was expected that the inventory center would continue to rise [43]. - View and Operation Suggestion: Steel prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. It was recommended to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [43]. Iron Ore - Spot and Futures: The spot price of mainstream iron ore powder showed a slight change, and the futures price of iron ore oscillated [44]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, and blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased, while the steel mill profitability rate decreased slightly [44]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased [45]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, the daily average port clearance volume increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [45]. - View and Operation Suggestion: The iron ore market was in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It was recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot price of domestic coking coal was strong, and the price of Mongolian coal rose [47][48]. - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines increased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal decreased [48][49]. - Demand: The pig iron output continued to rise, the coking operation rate remained stable, and the downstream replenishment demand increased [49]. - Inventory: The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [50]. - View and Operation Suggestion: It was recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [51]. Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The second - round price cut of coke by steel mills was implemented, and some coking enterprises began to raise prices [52][54]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was - 17 yuan/ton [53]. - Supply: The daily output of coke of independent coking plants and steel mills remained stable [53]. - Demand: The steel mills continued to resume production, and the pig iron output continued to rise slightly [54]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking plants decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports increased [54]. - View and Operation Suggestion: It was recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - Spot Market: The spot price of domestic soybean meal showed mixed trends, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal was zero [55]. - Fundamentals: China purchased at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans after Argentina取消谷物和油籽出口关税. The sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was faster than in previous years [55][56]. - Outlook: The price of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The supply of domestic soybean meal was abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal was expected to continue to weaken [57]. Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs oscillated. The national average price was 12.65 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase [58]. - Market Data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased. The enthusiasm of retail farmers and secondary fattening farmers to slaughter increased [58]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of live pigs were stable, and the price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to oscillate and adjust [59]. Corn - Spot Price: The spot price of corn in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia was generally weak, while the price in North China and the Huang - Huai region was partially strong. The port price decreased [60]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of corn in the four northern ports decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume also decreased [60]. - Outlook: The corn price was expected to oscillate weakly under the bearish expectation [60].