农产品早报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: In the short - term, with new - season corn about to hit the market, terminal demand weakens and prices are likely to decline slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to face downward pressure due to increased production and lower costs [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, as the cost of raw corn drops, the price of starch is likely to be adjusted downward to reduce inventory. In the medium - to - long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs keep the outlook for starch prices bearish [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazil's high - pressure sugar supply weighs on prices. In China, with imported sugar arriving and processing sugar prices falling, the futures market faces pressure [4]. - Cotton: The market has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risks, the April low could be the long - term bottom, and the downside for cotton prices is limited [5]. - Eggs: In September, demand increased due to school openings and holiday stocking, causing a nearly 40% price rebound. High inventory and cold - storage eggs limit price increases, but the likelihood of prices falling below feed costs is low [8]. - Apples: New - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and seasonal fruits are squeezing the market share of apples. Attention should be paid to the final production [10]. - Pigs: There are policy - related expectations for a production inflection point next year, but in the short - term, supply pressure persists, and the market focuses on factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn/Starch - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the price in蛇口 decreased by 20, the基差 decreased by 6, the贸易利润 decreased by 20, and the加工利润 of starch increased by 20 [2]. Sugar - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the柳州基差 decreased by 53, the进口利润 from Thailand decreased by 8, the进口利润 from Brazil decreased by 8, and the仓单 decreased by 168 [4]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 20, the仓单 + 预报 decreased by 199, the越南纱进口利润 decreased by 6, and the 32S纺纱利润 decreased by 21 [5]. Eggs - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the基差 decreased by 130, and the price of生猪 increased by 0.03 [8]. Apples - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the全国库存 decreased by 48, the山东库存 decreased by 46, and the陕西库存 decreased by 62 [9][10]. Pigs - Price and Indicator Changes: From September 18 to 24, the基差 decreased by 65, and the price in江苏南通 decreased by 0.05 [14].